Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf67db464b5fa8236c8851de50d2f5c6a345f5cad540ee5dd1c8715adc39d2a53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 1,136$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.09 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 1,036$735 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 655.58$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 7c | 605.11$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.96 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf84d…5e65backed No | 46c | 228.09$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 51c | 223$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 39c | 213.36$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 7c | 206.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 79c | 200$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x271e…8eb9backed No | 75c | 180.01$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.18 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 15c | 170.49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed Yes | 6c | 165.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.31 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 32c | 155.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 12c | 119.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.53 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed No | 18c | 113$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 57c | 111.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 62c | 105.41$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.56 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 71c | 98.87$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.59 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 22c | 93.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.92 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 92.49$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 57c | 90.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.09 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed Yes | 23c | 77.44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.38 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 17c | 72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 70.95$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 66.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed No | 71c | 66.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.34 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 62c | 59.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 20c | 59.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.99 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 39c | 56.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…aa69backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.4 | 308 | 49%151 W · 157 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 49.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 46.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.79 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 78c | 43.43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 36c | 40.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 74c | 38.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 29c | 37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 61c | 32.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 72c | 31.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e3…0f3ebacked Yes | 64c | 30.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 74c | 30.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 60c | 29.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 27.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…bc3ebacked No | 58c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 62c | 21.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.