Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4343fb5feb23e0c0fef8a608d746b77e422f427e8eaf836dd3d84d2916cf0ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 32c | 1,297$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.2 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 722.44$484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 664.82$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 24c | 614.56$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 480.54$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 12c | 384.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 71c | 370.74$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.14 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 34c | 276.6$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.04 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 199.74$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.22 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 68c | 199$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.68 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 74c | 160$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 140.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 40c | 125.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 68c | 119.5$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 75c | 118.7$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 21c | 107.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 31c | 100.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.44 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 69c | 86.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.96 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 73.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed Yes | 33c | 71.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 15c | 69.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x930c…2980backed Yes | 37c | 64.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 26c | 52.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 32c | 50.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 49.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 33c | 48.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 44.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 33c | 43.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 69c | 42.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 41.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 31c | 34.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 22.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 74c | 21.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0beb…4503backed No | 74c | 21.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked No | 73c | 20.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6de6…f3e4backed No | 69c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on July 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 84-85°F on July 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on July 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.