MLB · resolved market
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89f34cbb9903f1a46b4e66788f9cb8e259120118bd486ff05239cf172043dffc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,881 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 57c | 2,070$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.92 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 1,169$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.57 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 1,168$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.42 | 234 | 55.6%130 W · 104 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 856.82$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.82 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 756.52$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.09 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5555…2af1backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 555$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 545.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1,010 | 51.2%517 W · 493 L | +36.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 486.96$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.23 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked San Diego Padres | 27c | 475.9$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.23 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 474.26$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.03 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 414.97$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.11 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 300$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 253$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.21 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 239$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.78 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 224.27$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.41 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked San Diego Padres | 26c | 222.89$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Texas Rangers | 42c | 208$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.64 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked San Diego Padres | 56c | 162.4$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.94 | 981 | 49.8%489 W · 492 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe9…9c50backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 159$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 150$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…46f0backed San Diego Padres | 55c | 147.7$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 1,167 | 49%572 W · 595 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed San Diego Padres | 18c | 115.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 6,302 | 48.3%3,041 W · 3,261 L | +181.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked San Diego Padres | 54c | 103$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.98 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Texas Rangers | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6483…750abacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Texas Rangers | 43c | 80$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed San Diego Padres | 56c | 74.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 705 | 46.8%330 W · 375 L | -13.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed San Diego Padres | 19c | 65.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 74c | 56.92$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 49.9$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 46.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed San Diego Padres | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…8c68backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 370 | 48.9%181 W · 189 L | -12.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7923…1c18backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 28.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd732…0fd0backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Texas Rangers | 74c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 23.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…28abbacked Texas Rangers | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a2…23a0backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 15.91$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -3.3wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.