MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0672c230ebb3a4c21d3e1856c2395c2ce6e21f805339295e74eddc65e4047b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Athletics, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,101 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 2,470$1,457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.7 | 324 | 51.9%168 W · 156 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Athletics | 44c | 1,500$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.56 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…159dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 1,323$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.09 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 55cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Athletics | 41c | 1,089$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.87 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Athletics | 42c | 900.09$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.17 | 474 | 47.3%224 W · 250 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Athletics | 41c | 739.72$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.29 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f5…3e7abacked Cleveland Guardians | 58c | 647.35$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.89 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 377.01$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.51 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…26b7backed Athletics | 47c | 362$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.15 | 134 | 42.5%57 W · 77 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Athletics | 46c | 301.35$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.26 | 3,303 | 46.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L | +22.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 300$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133 | 1,301 | 50.2%653 W · 648 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 79c | 266$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 230$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.02 | 1,538 | 48.6%747 W · 791 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 217$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.48 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked Cleveland Guardians | 60c | 190.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics | 46c | 188.68$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7140…47e3backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 177.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Cleveland Guardians | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Athletics | 44c | 169.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed Athletics | 40c | 164.78$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 688 | 46.8%322 W · 366 L | +9.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Athletics | 43c | 150$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 170 | 50%85 W · 85 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Athletics | 43c | 100.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4c…dc70backed Athletics | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 74.2$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | +6.4wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e5…485abacked Athletics | 18c | 70.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Athletics | 41c | 68.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…1e5ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed Athletics | 38c | 59.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Athletics | 42c | 55.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Athletics | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 856 | 35.7%306 W · 550 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Cleveland Guardians | 57c | 52.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 849 | 49.1%417 W · 432 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Athletics | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…dd4fbacked Athletics | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Athletics | 44c | 41.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…6906backed Athletics | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8390…3773backed Athletics | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc0…8f18backed Athletics | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Athletics | 44c | 32.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb691…b39dbacked Athletics | 54c | 29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 26.82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed Athletics | 44c | 22.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 56c | 22.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Cleveland Guardians | 55c | 19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Cleveland Guardians | 77c | 15.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.