Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel: Cazaux vs. Buse
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a2d3713766f69f20d2ee86ec79c8b4833e6b9bd0d0760f18ebefb7213cef5cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cazauxof Cazaux, Buse
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,841
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,841 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Buse | 44c | 1,441$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.99 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Buse | 46c | 1,150$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.5 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cazaux | 58c | 1,140$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.8 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Buse | 49c | 1,085$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.06 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Cazaux | 61c | 986.03$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.03 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Buse | 50c | 877.5$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$438.75 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Cazaux | 50c | 708$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Buse | 50c | 700.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.25 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…51a7backed Buse | 28c | 400$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked Cazaux | 49c | 391.38$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.28 | 220 | 21.8%48 W · 172 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e9…c21ebacked Cazaux | 43c | 360$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Cazaux | 48c | 338.47$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Cazaux | 60c | 310$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.4 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Cazaux | 50c | 262$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Cazaux | 58c | 257.95$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.09 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Buse | 51c | 220$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +86.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Cazaux | 50c | 200.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.39 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Cazaux | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Cazaux | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…5a7cbacked Cazaux | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Cazaux | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Buse | 52c | 193.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…8191backed Buse | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Buse | 49c | 171.04$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.75 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Cazaux | 47c | 168.05$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.07 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Cazaux | 56c | 144.44$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 312 | 55.4%173 W · 139 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc023…8a16backed Buse | 57c | 122.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Buse | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba0…ff3abacked Buse | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 431 | 58.2%251 W · 180 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Cazaux | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Buse | 45c | 63.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Buse | 45c | 62.76$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4d…c0cfbacked Cazaux | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06c6…4162backed Cazaux | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0667…42e1backed Buse | 51c | 31.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Buse | 56c | 22.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Cazaux | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | +8.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Buse | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.