MLB · resolved market
Cardinals vs. Reds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a5da45afd6940e084159edca6596684da3deedfbd21c7414fe8cff6a9bff025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Redsof Cardinals, Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,481
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05b9…af0abacked Cardinals | 45c | 6,164$2,789 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,788.82 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Reds | 55c | 3,597$1,979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,618.63 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Cardinals | 46c | 2,401$1,104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,104.45 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed Reds | 54c | 1,900$1,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Cardinals | 46c | 1,525$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.42 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Reds | 69c | 1,300$901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Reds | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Reds | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Reds | 54c | 925.93$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.93 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cardinals | 7c | 600$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cardinals | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Reds | 54c | 582.7$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.63 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb472…9145backed Reds | 54c | 538.89$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.89 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +66.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…f9e2backed Cardinals | 48c | 514.58$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…cd4ebacked Cardinals | 48c | 485.42$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Cardinals | 46c | 479$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.34 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Cardinals | 46c | 469.26$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.86 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…a9acbacked Reds | 54c | 461.11$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x698b…4426backed Reds | 54c | 458.18$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.76 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…97d0backed Reds | 54c | 300.23$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.2 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Reds | 55c | 142.93$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.71 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Cardinals | 38c | 107.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…c50cbacked Reds | 53c | 105$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2c…fb6fbacked Cardinals | 47c | 105$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cardinals | 46c | 103.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Cardinals | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…d9a9backed Reds | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62b…de3cbacked Cardinals | 30c | 67.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Reds | 54c | 53.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Reds | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 406 | 29.1%118 W · 288 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Reds | 54c | 43.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Cardinals | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Reds | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f19…72d9backed Cardinals | 46c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 416 | 49%204 W · 212 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…ecbfbacked Reds | 54c | 25.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Reds | 53c | 24.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked Reds | 61c | 19.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.54 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Reds | 54c | 18.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.