Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a5e4166e09564c54947fb98a1f8f11db59946f075ef4a1a8cbf2bcd7d618776
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 31c | 645.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 492.95$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.98 | 1,858 | 42.7%793 W · 1,065 L | +50.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 59c | 489.09$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.98 | 214 | 60.3%129 W · 85 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 60c | 487.97$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 4,739 | 47.5%2,249 W · 2,490 L | -186.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 51c | 443.94$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.53 | 2,362 | 20.6%486 W · 1,876 L | -63.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 45c | 354.11$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 63c | 326.33$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.95 | 1,488 | 57.3%853 W · 635 L | +46.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 24c | 317.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.49 | 1,189 | 38.2%454 W · 735 L | +21.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 72c | 260.14$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 535 | 48.2%258 W · 277 L | +21.6wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 60c | 237.56$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 13c | 221.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…43cebacked Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 54c | 184.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.41 | 1,254 | 59.8%750 W · 504 L | +36.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 44c | 165.5$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 51c | 129.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.44 | 253 | 57.7%146 W · 107 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c95…52dbbacked No | 40c | 124.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.22 | 189 | 47.6%90 W · 99 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 21c | 110.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 16c | 105$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 48c | 104.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1,158 | 57.1%661 W · 497 L | -45.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 881 | 50.5%445 W · 436 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 923 | 55.9%516 W · 407 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c25…ef77backed No | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8bf…019fbacked No | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 45cpaid | +102.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 1,472 | 34.8%512 W · 960 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 50c | 96.13$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.41 | 1,477 | 58.6%865 W · 612 L | +72.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 41c | 89.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 2,757 | 29.7%819 W · 1,938 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 31c | 67.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb530…3c03backed Yes | 27c | 67.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 79 | 13.9%11 W · 68 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 64c | 60.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.82 | 523 | 47.6%249 W · 274 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 29c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 4,009 | 47.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L | +71.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…6aa2backed No | 72c | 53.57$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 142 | 40.1%57 W · 85 L | -11.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…dc27backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +132.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 53.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 5,003 | 53.5%2,678 W · 2,325 L | +31.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 786 | 27.1%213 W · 573 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 54c | 48.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 169 | 58.6%99 W · 70 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 62c | 47.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 46.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 9,962 | 45.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L | -309.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 64c | 44.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.01 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 73c | 42.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 2,274 | 56.7%1,289 W · 985 L | +65.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 55.4%112 W · 90 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 59c | 39.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 216 | 56%121 W · 95 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 30c | 39.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 37c | 37.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 3,064 | 33.5%1,027 W · 2,037 L | +13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 63c | 31.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 138 | 72.5%100 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 29.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 2,434 | 79.4%1,933 W · 501 L | +99.7wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc10e…f0c3backed No | 47c | 29.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 24.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b31…8ee2backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53fb…e92abacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 170 | 58.8%100 W · 70 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed No | 80c | 18.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.86 | 172 | 62.8%108 W · 64 L | +14.9wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 72c | 16.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 144 | 55.6%80 W · 64 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,632 | 60.7%990 W · 642 L | -18.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 76c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 706 | 75.5%533 W · 173 L | +18.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.