Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc80f356b50db31819dfad5ccec9b42361fa1caafc3b0ed50c11dd3cee225929
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,147
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,434
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,147 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26b1…cc81backed No | 2c | 3,000$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 237 | 28.7%68 W · 169 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 4c | 2,883$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,758.75 | 172 | 24.4%42 W · 130 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Yes | 3c | 2,066$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.9 | 207 | 10.1%21 W · 186 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,004$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,965.93 | 926 | 40.2%372 W · 554 L | +114.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +66%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 12c | 1,272$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.43 | 763 | 22.9%175 W · 588 L | -34.2wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1703…1f9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,230$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,209.85 | 97 | 12.4%12 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +61%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88e0…ceeebacked No | 32c | 801.74$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.25 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3e…cefdbacked No | 70c | 795.06$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.99 | 58 | 67.2%39 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 12c | 663.03$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.74 | 1,500 | 24.7%371 W · 1,129 L | -31.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 34c | 591.97$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.59 | 483 | 62.5%302 W · 181 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…b0c7backed Yes | 18c | 563.05$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464.22 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +125.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 11c | 499.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.36 | 1,067 | 50.7%541 W · 526 L | +29.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 23c | 498.95$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 4,442 | 53.7%2,387 W · 2,055 L | -17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafd5…62f3backed No | 71c | 394.96$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 47c | 389.18$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.69 | 1,901 | 55.9%1,062 W · 839 L | -33.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 23c | 314.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.86 | 466 | 40.3%188 W · 278 L | +30.4wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 65c | 304.99$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.98 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0458…ddc2backed Yes | 8c | 295.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.83 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 20cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc2…49c3backed Yes | 6c | 262.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +671.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…3166backed No | 5c | 241$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.25per pick | 18cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 23c | 225.36$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 4,700 | 26.6%1,248 W · 3,452 L | +64.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 68c | 217.63$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.7 | 413 | 66.6%275 W · 138 L | +36.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 19c | 206.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.27 | 921 | 45.6%420 W · 501 L | -29.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 71c | 205.53$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.44 | 451 | 67%302 W · 149 L | +39.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d98…261ebacked Yes | 25c | 196.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.38 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 36c | 193.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.45 | 2,250 | 57%1,282 W · 968 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38c…8c4dbacked Yes | 78c | 192.07$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 24c | 168$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 1,451 | 52.3%759 W · 692 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 16c | 164.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 2,176 | 53.1%1,156 W · 1,020 L | +36.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 9c | 163.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 2,254 | 56.9%1,283 W · 971 L | +69.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…a7dabacked Yes | 49c | 122.73$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.71 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 14c | 118.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 3,725 | 33.8%1,258 W · 2,467 L | -194.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 53c | 118.35$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 2,283 | 58.3%1,331 W · 952 L | +85.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 102.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 436 | 38.1%166 W · 270 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…6307backed Yes | 73c | 101.92$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.37 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 13c | 100.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,286 | 57.3%1,309 W · 977 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e92…cb85backed Yes | 67c | 98.79$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 92.27$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.33 | 12,545 | 46.9%5,879 W · 6,666 L | -39.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 70c | 85.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 339 | 43.1%146 W · 193 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 35c | 84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 2,295 | 59.3%1,360 W · 935 L | +118.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 65c | 84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda58…6009backed No | 58c | 80.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 38c | 78.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 2,223 | 56.1%1,247 W · 976 L | +54.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 61c | 77.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 886 | 60.7%538 W · 348 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…6010backed Yes | 78c | 77.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 40c | 68.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 2,216 | 56.8%1,258 W · 958 L | +65.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 67.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2,201 | 56.8%1,250 W · 951 L | +69.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 42c | 64.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2,226 | 59.1%1,316 W · 910 L | +110.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…9e29backed No | 48c | 62.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 34c | 60.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,254 | 58.2%1,311 W · 943 L | +84.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,417 | 65.2%924 W · 493 L | +59.7wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.97 | 520 | 46.9%244 W · 276 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 66c | 58.81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.17 | 256 | 42.2%108 W · 148 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed No | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 55.15$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.11 | 917 | 73.2%671 W · 246 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43be…d8bebacked No | 66c | 53.14$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 44 | 77.3%34 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d4…9705backed Yes | 78c | 51.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe4…f53bbacked Yes | 60c | 50.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 251 | 46.6%117 W · 134 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b6…0d2bbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 164 | 73.2%120 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 60c | 46.72$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c8…3730backed Yes | 55c | 44.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 44c | 44.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 5,625 | 47.8%2,687 W · 2,938 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 43.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.52 | 12,975 | 20.5%2,666 W · 10,309 L | -2,698.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…981cbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 39.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 814 | 57.5%468 W · 346 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 61c | 38.12$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 2,233 | 56%1,250 W · 983 L | +47.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe60…56f5backed Yes | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10bd…8ff6backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 62c | 29.88$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 60 | 60%36 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaeaf…266bbacked Yes | 69c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1f07…7573backed Yes | 54c | 23.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 47c | 22.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 230 | 66.5%153 W · 77 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9f…d7c1backed Yes | 52c | 22.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 75c | 17.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 290 | 51.4%149 W · 141 L | +25.4wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 64c | 16.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2705…a12abacked Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb92c…79a1backed No | 74c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.5wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on August 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on August 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on August 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.