MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a620038fd7071878649bbd001fead5ed8663db96bcc2a0465bd3c5abd928b7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,468
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Over | 43c | 1,300$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 57c | 998.15$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 66c | 833.09$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 3c | 370.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 37c | 291.08$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.57 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 246$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.29 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 29c | 225.71$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 26c | 212.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 42c | 174$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Over | 28c | 81.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 60.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 57c | 58.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 43c | 40.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Over | 43c | 38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…b5e5backed Under | 58c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 68c | 29.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked Under | 63c | 28.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 66c | 27.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682a…c87dbacked Under | 56c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.