MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c1b93bfabce84f3eb67b314c36984ac3b84d6c7dc0467cc1df5492c0000f846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 51c | 6,229$3,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,154.47 | 469 | 49%230 W · 239 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 4,808$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 49c | 3,383$1,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,719.04 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Over | 50c | 2,957$1,479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.5 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 50c | 1,758$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.37 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 49c | 1,555$762 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$793.04 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 1,452$726 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.01 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Under | 49c | 1,111$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.6 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 49c | 1,053$511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.4 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 51c | 1,022$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.25 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 49c | 916.7$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.52 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Over | 51c | 777$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.27 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…99a6backed Over | 11c | 687.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.37 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 74c | 626.76$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.04 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 48c | 620.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.75 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 49c | 620$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.2 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c8e…a316backed Under | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 226 | 38.5%87 W · 139 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 40c | 213.36$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b1…b027backed Over | 39c | 205$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.95 | 209 | 44%92 W · 117 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Under | 49c | 198$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.98 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 50c | 182$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 179.16$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.09 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 35c | 161.28$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.45 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 32c | 152.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b74…0482backed Over | 41c | 134.13$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.59 | 522 | 28%146 W · 376 L | -57.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec8d…dd71backed Under | 50c | 110.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.45 | 273 | 51.3%140 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 67c | 107.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.62 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 94.35$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.83 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 50c | 85.63$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.83 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x360a…376fbacked Over | 51c | 77.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 67.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Under | 50c | 59.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x536e…4fd5backed Over | 51c | 58.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 187 | 42.8%80 W · 107 L | -16.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Under | 60c | 50.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 44.8%74 W · 91 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 51c | 43.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 50c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Under | 68c | 39.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a8…df77backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721c…d585backed Under | 66c | 36.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 50c | 36.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 41c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Under | 56c | 33.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 76c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 50c | 22.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York YankeesDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 10.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 3.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 5.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 6.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.