Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a62b6a3a848e112c28f5260c24c0723e248dd52b7dd56d40ea8e5509d7699fb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbb4…4e22backed Yes | 50c | 301.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 56c | 254.4$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 7c | 160.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 8c | 157.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 33c | 151.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.58 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 148.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 69c | 145.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.74 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 8c | 136.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 26c | 132.83$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 121.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 78c | 119.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…556cbacked Yes | 42c | 115.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 68c | 115.57$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 62c | 109.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.62 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 61c | 105.96$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.51 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 71c | 94.59$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.91 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 92.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 48c | 87.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.82 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 51c | 86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.08 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 82.53$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 57c | 80.79$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.04 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 19c | 80.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 23c | 80.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 35c | 79.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb50c…5463backed Yes | 16c | 76.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 33c | 75.83$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.86 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…7518backed No | 67c | 74.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 67c | 71.7$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed No | 55c | 65.33$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 47c | 63.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked No | 33c | 62.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 71c | 61.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f4…f04cbacked Yes | 63c | 58.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 174 | 40.8%71 W · 103 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 35c | 57.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 42c | 56.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 42c | 56.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.53 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.9 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 50.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 31c | 47.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 44c | 45.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 43.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…8f19backed Yes | 44c | 39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 139 | 41.7%58 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 71c | 38.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 68c | 36.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 38c | 26.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 48c | 25.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf43…66f5backed Yes | 43c | 23.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 57c | 23.18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 70c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…62b9backed Yes | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 31 | 77.4%24 W · 7 L | +5.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeda8…7795backed No | 58c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 74c | 17.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…7ef6backed No | 71c | 17.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 116 | 70.7%82 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 64c | 17.34$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 14.23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on May 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on May 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 27°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on May 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 30°C or higher on May 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.