Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a64d7611a2e0971e82574b50885383ae3bd2b7d2b220f36f53dcfd1a9a65994
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,290 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 6,593$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.14 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 5,624$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 13c | 5,438$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.37 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Under | 16c | 1,213$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.9 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 75c | 799.34$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.83 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea1…f17ebacked Under | 3c | 783.03$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c9…28f4backed Over | 71c | 715.49$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…b968backed Under | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 34c | 308.2$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.06 | 626 | 48.6%304 W · 322 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ec…759fbacked Under | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22ac…7409backed Over | 79c | 276.83$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 66c | 270.02$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf488…0c6dbacked Over | 80c | 250$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf4…40fabacked Over | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 6c | 218.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 2cpaid | +346.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Under | 19c | 185.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 72c | 165.12$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 14c | 153.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1937…3453backed Under | 14c | 149.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…adddbacked Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed Over | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Over | 68c | 120$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 15c | 97.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 17c | 97.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 76c | 78.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 78 | 69.2%54 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 23c | 61.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Over | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90df…a209backed Under | 32c | 32.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 43cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd768…249dbacked Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Over | 73c | 29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Over | 74c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 79c | 24.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…3c70backed Over | 68c | 21.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9046…227fbacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf55…92a2backed Over | 76c | 16.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.