Ligue 1 · resolved market
OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x79603070681d3ef9dbeb34ebd0aa9185c4e6db671723846ff56d7ee6a11d9cff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,843
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,843 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf294…7967backed Over | 24c | 2,720$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 2,415$1,874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.63 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 76c | 1,316$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.37 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 21c | 1,249$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.5 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 32c | 1,172$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.11 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 18c | 1,100$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.49 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 932$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.34 | 211 | 44.5%94 W · 117 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 23c | 851.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…780dbacked Over | 15c | 610.94$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Under | 76c | 400$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4f…ccbbbacked Over | 12c | 336.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 49cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 32c | 313.52$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 13c | 307.06$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 26c | 289.98$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.39 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42d…62febacked Under | 74c | 277.03$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed Over | 8c | 250$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 23c | 199$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.77 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x862a…d26bbacked Under | 77c | 189.1$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…5f0abacked Over | 12c | 169.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 70c | 143.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Over | 11c | 120.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 351 | 57%200 W · 151 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 17c | 111.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f1…3cd3backed Over | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.4wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 24c | 89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dec…60c2backed Under | 70c | 84.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 25c | 64.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b9…9613backed Under | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 70cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…d49dbacked Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7718…4c1bbacked Over | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 35.71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 172 | 51.2%88 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 21.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 140 | 57.1%80 W · 60 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Under | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x087f…2ebfbacked Under | 76c | 15.01$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5this page
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- OGC Nice vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: OGC Nice (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Paris Saint-Germain FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.