Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aac010b31d4fc09b6feff2121770635f50f909298cbcae8ac1cefe72afa0659
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,857
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,857 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfb9…9c56backed Yes | 0c | 4,445$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +9.3wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 56c | 1,013$562 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.84 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 449.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 382.62$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.4 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 39c | 355.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 330.42$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.82 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 264.78$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 209$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 45c | 200$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 196.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 6c | 179.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 35c | 159.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 34c | 149.94$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.98 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 8c | 133.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 71c | 118.69$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…29ecbacked Yes | 10c | 114.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +10.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed Yes | 48c | 113.76$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.75 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 45c | 102.13$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 39c | 101.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 100.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 100.1$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 51c | 96.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 71.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 66c | 60.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.68 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 25c | 50.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…7718backed No | 75c | 50.2$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc800…4117backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 45c | 44.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 68c | 44.14$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked No | 68c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 48c | 39.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 54c | 39.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 31c | 35.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 29c | 35.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 51c | 28.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 77c | 27.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 40c | 25.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 20.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…7dafbacked No | 72c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 43 | 81.4%35 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 74cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 73°F or below on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on August 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.