Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ab49e10e7a11f629c82e13f68e5d3ce11019e45de316dbba19f6c5444ac29f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,905
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,414
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,905 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 74c | 799.41$594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.89 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 659.36$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 16c | 595.32$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 502.61$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.88 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…f21dbacked Yes | 17c | 455.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 83 | 39.8%33 W · 50 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 27c | 361.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 10c | 325.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.14 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed Yes | 35c | 269.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 15c | 267.23$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 66c | 263.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.86 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 19c | 207$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 43c | 203.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 79c | 199.32$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe036…c94abacked No | 75c | 181.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc10…311fbacked Yes | 17c | 170.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 23c | 133.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.71 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 38c | 130.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 62c | 119.36$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.01 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 45c | 113.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.47 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 103.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed No | 59c | 97.54$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 20c | 95.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 94.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 13c | 93.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 34c | 91.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 34c | 88.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 39c | 88.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 84.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 47c | 82.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…c1babacked No | 79c | 82.45$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 82 | 50%41 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 35c | 79.75$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 78c | 73.15$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…5115backed No | 77c | 72.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 108 | 50%54 W · 54 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 68c | 71.48$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4c…1116backed No | 59c | 65.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 64.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…2cfebacked No | 64c | 60.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb81…7b82backed Yes | 39c | 55.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.64 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 38c | 55.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 69c | 54.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc08e…9594backed Yes | 32c | 49.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.83 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 49.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f51…dc5dbacked Yes | 44c | 46.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…2099backed Yes | 40c | 45.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +121.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 44c | 45.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 80c | 44.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…c8f2backed Yes | 24c | 44.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdab…088abacked Yes | 38c | 43.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -54%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 74c | 40.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 42c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 44c | 39.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 62c | 37.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…2dfcbacked Yes | 31c | 36.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…8495backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 30c | 34.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b85…b31ebacked Yes | 43c | 33.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 32.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3b…ae48backed No | 61c | 32.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 250 | 58.4%146 W · 104 L | +22.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 30.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec5…5001backed Yes | 38c | 29.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -39%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 57c | 28.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5333…df0dbacked Yes | 41c | 28.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked No | 58c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 58c | 25.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed No | 62c | 24.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e93…78a6backed No | 66c | 22.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 66c | 22.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 53c | 21.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.24 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…ccddbacked No | 73c | 21.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 67c | 20.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 69c | 19.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 18.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 30?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.