Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Tearlaments (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8acbd7567b8777b3741122fe2f39b19c5319e827a4c79cdad41714e798168a92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tearlamentsof Yakutou Brothers, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,705
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,705 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x06a8…2927backed Tearlaments | 50c | 3,080$1,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,526.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -4.8wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 34c | 1,603$549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548.79 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccc…dbddbacked Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 1,537$799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.33 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Tearlaments | 66c | 955.77$635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.67 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yakutou Brothers | 56c | 704.37$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.45 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked Tearlaments | 67c | 520$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.6 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 500$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ab…edaabacked Yakutou Brothers | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…1691backed Yakutou Brothers | 44c | 438.54$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.67 | 142 | 44.4%63 W · 79 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Tearlaments | 66c | 395.35$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.42 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 300$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9473…ad17backed Tearlaments | 48c | 285.08$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked Tearlaments | 73c | 274.82$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.26 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xba79…4c9ebacked Tearlaments | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked Yakutou Brothers | 41c | 219.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.09 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yakutou Brothers | 16c | 203.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef35…c333backed Tearlaments | 40c | 197.5$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.5 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…39b0backed Yakutou Brothers | 43c | 187.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Tearlaments | 25c | 186.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Yakutou Brothers | 15c | 146.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Yakutou Brothers | 57c | 142$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.54 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed Tearlaments | 48c | 105.55$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yakutou Brothers | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yakutou Brothers | 33c | 90.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197b…c43abacked Yakutou Brothers | 51c | 83.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…2261backed Yakutou Brothers | 75c | 80$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 211 | 55%116 W · 95 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02d7…0c39backed Yakutou Brothers | 33c | 79.41$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 205 | 30.7%63 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yakutou Brothers | 65c | 78.54$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…6fe0backed Tearlaments | 42c | 34.48$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 275 | 48%132 W · 143 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda0…a51abacked Yakutou Brothers | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tearlaments | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9086…4738backed Yakutou Brothers | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yakutou Brothers | 52c | 20.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cd…010bbacked Yakutou Brothers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3099…d252backed Tearlaments | 68c | 19.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 75 | 70.7%53 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0187…161cbacked Tearlaments | 76c | 13.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Tearlaments (BO3)this page
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Tearlaments - Game 1 WinnerTearlaments won
- Dota 2: Yakutou Brothers vs Tearlaments - Game 2 WinnerTearlaments won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.