Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b501b970a40ed7fd9cdbb89782af86ab6a9406beb6011aec42f4e6be9ac1937
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,725
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,725 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b69…e094backed Yes | 58c | 1,190$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 1,153$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.39 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 44c | 1,035$453 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.14 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Yes | 58c | 860.02$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 42c | 400$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Yes | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 46c | 278.69$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.08 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 44c | 199$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.38 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf680…2c59backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 58c | 128$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Yes | 57c | 60.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.8 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 53c | 54.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 50c | 43.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Yes | 45c | 40.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 110 | 45.5%50 W · 60 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 271 | 42.8%116 W · 155 L | +18.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 46c | 35.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…618ebacked Yes | 58c | 35.41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 62cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x902f…86abbacked No | 43c | 33.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x790e…acf5backed No | 42c | 31.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb94b…bd62backed Yes | 59c | 30.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x381a…0ed5backed No | 43c | 29.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a6…96c1backed Yes | 58c | 28.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55a4…e52bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x931d…774abacked No | 42c | 26.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7e…50aabacked Yes | 58c | 24.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…c06dbacked Yes | 51c | 20.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.