TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$165,438
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,435

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,438 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9165…5b98backed Under49c123,820$60,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,674.391947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over51c62,574$32,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,057.371,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Over51c27,338$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00027138.4%104 W · 167 L-9.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc65c…ea39backed Under49c19,246$9,431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,815.59757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Over52c15,000$7,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,8002646.2%12 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over51c11,843$6,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,039.412,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Over51c11,111$5,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,666.614351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over51c7,304$3,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,743.553,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Under49c5,900$2,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,008.965653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23fb…fe50backed Under49c4,898$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over51c4,816$2,456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,455.9933244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over51c3,958$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.21,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over51c3,400$1,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,73456547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Over51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5305461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over27c1,500$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4052045%9 W · 11 L+4.2wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+166.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over49c1,327$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65014157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over52c1,200$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.8935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over52c505$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.69459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b1…19bbbacked Under49c408.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.162466.7%16 W · 8 L+3.6wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over51c400$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20431145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88ea…f0d2backed Over47c380$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.65020%10 W · 40 L-5.4wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-54.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under71c346.77$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.841,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.524258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Over51c244$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.4430054%162 W · 138 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over53c224$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.615453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ccc…e7e8backed Over51c200$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1023857.9%22 W · 16 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f51…41edbacked Over52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05f9…f351backed Under50c182$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$912254.5%12 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over51c158.82$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8125850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x239b…f8bfbacked Over51c156$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.177452.7%39 W · 35 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over52c153.85$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.510855.6%60 W · 48 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over53c135$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5522854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over38c131.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5025352.2%132 W · 121 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e8d…e22dbacked Over52c121.52$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.815145.1%23 W · 28 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41ed…1da9backed Over53c120$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6312162.8%76 W · 45 L+15.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+24.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over51c115.82$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.075752.6%30 W · 27 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over51c115.6$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.3455058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8996…15efbacked Over45c108$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.043836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7662…7930backed Under49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2027142.8%116 W · 155 L+18.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Under50c95$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.51338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick53cpaid-39.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.712356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.712858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd235…6eebbacked Over45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011943.7%52 W · 67 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick37cpaid+20.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Over52c87$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.861,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3991…b6c7backed Over53c80$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.44951%25 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69ee…6e35backed Over52c77.16$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7721051.4%108 W · 102 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under62c71.08$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.811,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd346…4c48backed Over30c67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over31c63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.612832%41 W · 87 L-9.8wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-25.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.812259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.811458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.813859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.811259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.812458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.812657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.812358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.813254.5%72 W · 60 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe6df…22a9backed Over53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.89159.3%54 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8726…0f36backed Under49c59$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.093040%12 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf2d9…0092backed Under49c57.9$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.262556%14 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b98…e5d1backed Under69c55.34$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.354100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfee4…d386backed Over51c54.17$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6318746%86 W · 101 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.513957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa97e…7753backed Over53c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.259659.4%57 W · 39 L+7.9wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.512757.5%73 W · 54 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58952.8%47 W · 42 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b5…798cbacked Over53c50$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.58155.6%45 W · 36 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x30a5…d47bbacked Over37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e5…52bebacked Over26c49.63$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-69.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe93f…6769backed Over52c48.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17cf…bf6abacked Over47c47.49$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over53c40$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.27057.1%40 W · 30 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over40c39$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.621041.9%88 W · 122 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020957.4%120 W · 89 L-0.7wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3a2…f3f9backed Under49c38.23$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ef3…f1a5backed Over52c36.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.361573.3%11 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.22per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc08f…2cb3backed Under49c35.92$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2897…a659backed Over52c35.61$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6c7…44cdbacked Over52c34.87$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.13366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+25%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x282a…2866backed Over44c34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.961471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.7wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+57.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Under50c34$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+29%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dad…356bbacked Under49c33.59$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick63cpaid+67.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8ec…aeaabacked Over45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153461.8%21 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xaff5…1a65backed Over52c32.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+33.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over49c32.42$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.899838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeefc…49babacked Under49c31.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over39c31$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.127541.3%31 W · 44 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.338151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.98660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.911759.8%70 W · 47 L+10.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over53c30$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.99265.2%60 W · 32 L+13.8wins+0.15per pick50cpaid+32.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x6dcb…9fdcbacked Under59c29.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.162100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over41c28.3$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.67962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1430…a753backed Over46c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.571233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+19.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2511360.2%68 W · 45 L+10.1wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe601…c728backed Over53c25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2511661.2%71 W · 45 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9ab4…7b01backed Over52c24.46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.