Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdeb3c285a229bb06d43ba742066230dc08ffa527734c124a27a7a8f900a2df47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,586
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 1,682$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.44 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Over | 77c | 1,299$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.7 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 1,180$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.29 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Over | 77c | 844.12$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.12 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…5e8bbacked Over | 77c | 349.61$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.51 | 28 | 75%21 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Over | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 128 | 61.7%79 W · 49 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 23c | 217$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…e801backed Over | 51c | 123.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 23c | 114.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 75c | 105$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…859cbacked Over | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Over | 58c | 99.99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Under | 23c | 85.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 83.77$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 66c | 69$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 57c | 66.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd8…5cdbbacked Under | 23c | 56.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1415backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 65 | 83.1%54 W · 11 L | +7.6wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 23c | 44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 32c | 35.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 61c | 32.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 30.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb4…68c3backed Over | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…d47bbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 76c | 13.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.24 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.