Bundesliga · resolved market
TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b56f952a573169e72c55da17f9c0fc32e29db0ff09f458593d7136cc768735b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,315
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,315 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 3,503$2,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.81 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 30c | 1,000$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +166.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 44c | 999.68$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.86 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 56c | 932$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.12 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Over | 29c | 849.95$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.14 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 62c | 788.74$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.82 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 750$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 24c | 740.06$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.57 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6f…06c4backed Under | 23c | 504$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 43c | 464.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 66c | 410.12$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 41c | 394.07$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 281.54$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.47 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Over | 29c | 233.57$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdf…56f5backed Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 55c | 182.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 253 | 52.2%132 W · 121 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 35c | 175.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc385…8eb0backed Over | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Over | 42c | 121.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x649a…02afbacked Over | 68c | 105$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 47 | 85.1%40 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.12per pick | 73cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked Under | 20c | 98.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.33 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…2e83backed Under | 24c | 79.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc53e…fbedbacked Over | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 120 | 69.2%83 W · 37 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 53.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.76 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 72c | 48.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…4167backed Under | 79c | 47.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 76c | 45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 37 | 78.4%29 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 74cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…05dfbacked Under | 31c | 38.71$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +62.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1f…5ea8backed Over | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…82d7backed Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 63.3%38 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 57c | 27.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc32…00bfbacked Over | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Over | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 60c | 22.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 59c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Over | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 77 | 66.2%51 W · 26 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6f…5a01backed Over | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: SC Preußen Münster (-2.5)TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 2.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf vs. SC Preußen Münster: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.