CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b770878353d401afbe88e02553812ed3a746c385dd195dcec46d0d5dcc4448f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Favbetof Favbet, Ursa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,846
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,846 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ursa | 15c | 2,347$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.05 | 2,328 | 51.1%1,189 W · 1,139 L | +92.3wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ursa | 15c | 1,183$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.45 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ursa | 50c | 593.46$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Ursa | 21c | 510$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.24 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc96…d916backed Ursa | 28c | 455.9$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4031…92c8backed Ursa | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 508 | 46.3%235 W · 273 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed Favbet | 52c | 300.61$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.87 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ursa | 18c | 271.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.19 | 1,398 | 48.4%676 W · 722 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Favbet | 70c | 197.87$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.31 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ursa | 26c | 191.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.44 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b6…ad8ebacked Favbet | 54c | 171$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 195 | 40%78 W · 117 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Favbet | 68c | 168.08$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.96 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ursa | 32c | 153.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Favbet | 41c | 149.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Ursa | 20c | 144$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e88…9b64backed Ursa | 13c | 133$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Ursa | 15c | 120$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,547 | 33.9%524 W · 1,023 L | -73.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45da…72febacked Favbet | 67c | 111.57$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed Ursa | 49c | 110.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 1,485 | 58%862 W · 623 L | +66.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Ursa | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 193 | 29%56 W · 137 L | -23.4wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ursa | 28c | 97.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Favbet | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed Ursa | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Favbet | 77c | 78$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 447 | 48.1%215 W · 232 L | +17.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Favbet | 71c | 68.9$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Favbet | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Favbet | 66c | 58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Favbet | 53c | 49.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 378 | 41.8%158 W · 220 L | -33.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…279bbacked Ursa | 34c | 38.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 199 | 35.2%70 W · 129 L | -18.2wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Favbet | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -8.1wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…26a1backed Favbet | 52c | 25.55$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 157 | 49.7%78 W · 79 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Group StageFavbet won
- Counter-Strike: Favbet vs Ursa - Map 1 WinnerFavbet won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.