MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b860114bbb773b09db8c54e930c7b7ba665b8024bf5be757b43259cfa041cca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20da…e704backed Colorado Rockies | 14c | 4,673$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.68 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 1,000$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…dcafbacked Colorado Rockies | 44c | 1,000$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Colorado Rockies | 14c | 597$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.87 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Washington Nationals | 79c | 480.9$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 797 | 40.4%322 W · 475 L | -19.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Colorado Rockies | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Colorado Rockies | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 415.24$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.63 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 149$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 114 | 63.2%72 W · 42 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd447…f42cbacked Colorado Rockies | 34c | 149$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Colorado Rockies | 40c | 122.45$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…fec8backed Washington Nationals | 61c | 108.11$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.81 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +3.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 235 | 45.5%107 W · 128 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 63.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 376 | 49.5%186 W · 190 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 40.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c75…154abacked Washington Nationals | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Colorado Rockies | 43c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Washington Nationals | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.