Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b874ac4b1208d3080f5487eddc4c9acc5810e99bd3883fd4e2a9f1c682e8711
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,817 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked No | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 27c | 381.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.79 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 41c | 255$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 18c | 243.12$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 18c | 166.65$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.33 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 27c | 140.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.69 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 127.02$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 107.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.85 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 39c | 103.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.34 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.5 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.61 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 63c | 98.91$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 25c | 96.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.36 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 12c | 90$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.6 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 23c | 85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 58c | 80.82$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 21c | 72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 75c | 67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 29c | 66.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 23c | 62.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.68 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2018…640abacked Yes | 26c | 61.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 61.37$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.07 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 19c | 53.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.65 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 53.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 66c | 53.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.91 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5c…4568backed No | 71c | 52.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.34 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 23c | 51.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 50.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed No | 79c | 48.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 48.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbeb…32b5backed Yes | 28c | 48.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 77c | 47$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 78c | 46.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 39c | 45.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 41$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 33.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 26.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 43c | 23$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 61c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed No | 65c | 16.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c1…9747backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C or higher on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 6°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 7°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 8°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.