Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Iran by October 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8d84a56f5d3ad8190262ceffd2bf7b4a280aab8cdb0cfc8f919e7ec06ba715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,528
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,528 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d05…6a81backed Yes | 1c | 59,160$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.16 | 432 | 12.5%54 W · 378 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe617…51bcbacked Yes | 2c | 24,810$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.97 | 35 | 8.6%3 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed Yes | 0c | 21,028$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71f8…55ffbacked Yes | 1c | 15,958$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.36 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc449…2b31backed Yes | 1c | 11,652$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe767…8a4fbacked Yes | 2c | 10,824$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4d…01c7backed Yes | 2c | 9,800$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.8 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 1c | 7,431$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 70 | 25.7%18 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 3c | 6,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…edb0backed Yes | 4c | 4,599$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.51 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,081$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c39…aaabbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,244$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 234 | 20.9%49 W · 185 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 1c | 2,236$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.38 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629f…6babbacked Yes | 1c | 2,222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,050$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…cfa0backed Yes | 7c | 1,427$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.96 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 5c | 1,276$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d8…3c51backed Yes | 1c | 1,143$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5670…bd63backed Yes | 2c | 1,134$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…0788backed Yes | 4c | 747.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.91 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…d635backed Yes | 2c | 633.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 6c | 251$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…5d72backed Yes | 10c | 230$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba29…363bbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 6c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53be…44f2backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked Yes | 6c | 197.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 149 | 45%67 W · 82 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 165 | 41.2%68 W · 97 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.