Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b93787e683d706c9af2ca7936b9937e93111f39a3a1ee7d7b250b618b08cab2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof L1ga Team, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed L1ga Team | 24c | 1,504$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.95 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40ed…4ae2backed 1win | 76c | 1,221$926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…776bbacked L1ga Team | 23c | 582.78$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.49 | 192 | 51.6%99 W · 93 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67c3…0e36backed 1win | 76c | 529.03$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.03 | 129 | 65.1%84 W · 45 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked 1win | 70c | 171$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked L1ga Team | 25c | 150$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +106.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x26a0…9fcdbacked 1win | 70c | 62.19$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…04f4backed L1ga Team | 25c | 55.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed L1ga Team | 30c | 54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…3b0abacked 1win | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a05…4c5abacked 1win | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 94 | 78.7%74 W · 20 L | +13.0wins | +0.14per pick | 65cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win - Game 1 Winner1win won
- Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Game Handicap: 1WIN (-1.5) vs L1ga Team (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.