Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-08-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ba7f00bd94eb39d1f12e696cae182d9f8da067be82193d5c2b4a7d9d908b9c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,325
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,325 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0570…465ebacked No | 45c | 3,300$1,485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f38…2ab9backed Yes | 30c | 1,667$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 62c | 1,603$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.81 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b46…8438backed Yes | 30c | 1,400$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…38f6backed No | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 37c | 832.89$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.77 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb357…a4aebacked Yes | 55c | 727.27$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde39…2fa1backed No | 52c | 472.96$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.01 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 9c | 440.27$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 47c | 425$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.52 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 46c | 416.01$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.41 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 53c | 277.56$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.11 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 52c | 263.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.12 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Yes | 55c | 240$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Yes | 55c | 196.6$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 73c | 195.93$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3101…e57fbacked Yes | 47c | 169.96$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.78 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47d9…54b7backed Yes | 34c | 111$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb2…ee14backed Yes | 55c | 102.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Yes | 22c | 99.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 47c | 99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bcc…e06fbacked Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 53c | 94.3$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 55c | 87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…7533backed No | 44c | 69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +98%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 55c | 51.93$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf92a…ae82backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb502…9d8bbacked Yes | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…6a2ebacked Yes | 35c | 43.07$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 51c | 41.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 51c | 41.25$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 51c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 26c | 39.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 51c | 35.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e94…fc93backed No | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5837…8cdebacked Yes | 56c | 26.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6951…66f3backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf1d…9591backed Yes | 55c | 25.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Yes | 55c | 23.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed No | 63c | 17.86$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-08-08?this page
- Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs. Eintracht Braunschweig end in a draw?No won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-08-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.