Serie A · resolved market
Atalanta vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bb12eaf792d02f356b9fa3dfb733d7fa5a962afe1210ef1bd8c5de25f876f53
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $83,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 61,080$18,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,560.87 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7606…2836backed Over | 79c | 44,329$35,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,019.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 49c | 9,687$4,746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,746.13 | 118 | 48.3%57 W · 61 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 45c | 6,067$2,733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,334.76 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed Under | 49c | 3,497$1,714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,783.54 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Over | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 50c | 2,875$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed Under | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Over | 49c | 1,070$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.3 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 49c | 999.92$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.96 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Over | 51c | 999.24$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.49 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 50c | 992.72$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.29 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03de…4bfdbacked Under | 50c | 981.81$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.9 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb37d…b5b3backed Over | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a6…ab4dbacked Over | 53c | 952$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa266…67f7backed Over | 51c | 829.8$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.2 | 114 | 29.8%34 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…2e84backed Under | 51c | 785$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Under | 48c | 708.43$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.21 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x278a…95dbbacked Over | 51c | 701.92$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa05b…a94fbacked Over | 51c | 589$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 50c | 555$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.5 | 99 | 58.6%58 W · 41 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…5a19backed Over | 56c | 509$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9769…7cd7backed Over | 51c | 450$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc4…d90bbacked Over | 50c | 401$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Over | 48c | 358$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.84 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Under | 53c | 313.21$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 125 | 65.6%82 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 47c | 272.07$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 49c | 256.4$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d77…b7bebacked Under | 36c | 220$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Over | 68c | 206.03$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b46…4f6ebacked Over | 78c | 195.32$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a7…7674backed Under | 80c | 125.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…da78backed Under | 48c | 115.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…55bfbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c91…2ae0backed Under | 51c | 95.5$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cab…e9c4backed Over | 51c | 78.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…56a1backed Under | 33c | 74.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x009a…2b8ebacked Over | 51c | 70.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3802…caddbacked Under | 47c | 70$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked Under | 41c | 64.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.21 | 102 | 60.8%62 W · 40 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 52c | 60.42$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe565…01a4backed Over | 50c | 60.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa9…72dbbacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 48c | 57.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Over | 64c | 54.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad8…9411backed Under | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d3…0698backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc356…62cfbacked Under | 40c | 45.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce71…54c9backed Over | 68c | 44.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8739…b4d4backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…2ee8backed Over | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…6f3ebacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x241c…5407backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Under | 38c | 39.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 356 | 46.6%166 W · 190 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cd…fdc9backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…3740backed Over | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Over | 74c | 28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…0231backed Over | 75c | 26.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…36f2backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 24.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Over | 50c | 23.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e42…b020backed Under | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7f…75a1backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…45bbbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91b5…49d5backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Atalanta vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5this page
- Atalanta vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Spread: AC Milan (-0.5)Atalanta won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.