Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bcac6bb472176a3724e89d51e24ee54635b4980451ff9d9c8e397cfa1dd5f82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 19c | 1,263$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked No | 80c | 377.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.24 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 10c | 267.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 74c | 222.43$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 12c | 214.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 75c | 200.32$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.08 | 208 | 45.7%95 W · 113 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4d…1a1fbacked Yes | 10c | 194.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2a…420abacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…2dd4backed Yes | 17c | 135.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9271…a28abacked Yes | 27c | 130.95$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Yes | 25c | 120.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 13c | 115.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 112.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 27c | 108$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 79.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…3409backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa820…2dcebacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd0…78febacked Yes | 26c | 64.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 74c | 59.48$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167c…a88bbacked Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 73c | 46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fc…38d5backed Yes | 27c | 43.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee5…bc7bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 75c | 37.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.7 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea65…d27dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff7…b686backed No | 75c | 19.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 19.23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 15.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-08?Yes won
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-08?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.