Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-08?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9468452876f63f418a8b4c28be7a96b79e461121f0c91ec478b02ae2b5a217d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,459
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,459 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 11c | 3,904$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.06 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ff…32ebbacked No | 73c | 3,239$2,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Yes | 52c | 3,057$1,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,600 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 2,798$766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765.83 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f76…aea6backed No | 62c | 2,123$1,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.14 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 27c | 1,495$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.91 | 407 | 44.5%181 W · 226 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked Yes | 27c | 1,343$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.61 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 1,111$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.36 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 61c | 1,058$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.83 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aef…f8dfbacked Yes | 25c | 900$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e02…5ddabacked Yes | 30c | 849.99$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 61c | 614.84$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.19 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 34c | 600$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 542.8$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.07 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 7c | 431.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 48c | 389$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.28 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Yes | 53c | 337.28$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.16 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a88…3dadbacked Yes | 51c | 299.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 13c | 272$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.36 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed No | 49c | 254.15$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 52c | 251.99$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 75c | 251$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 194 | 58.2%113 W · 81 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 70c | 245.45$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.81 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 50c | 231$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.5 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6b…ca1bbacked Yes | 48c | 230.13$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed No | 66c | 210.81$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.02 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -5.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked No | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 105 | 54.3%57 W · 48 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 48c | 194.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 32c | 188.03$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed No | 78c | 184.34$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 30c | 178.48$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 102.66$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.66 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Yes | 11c | 97.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 48c | 95.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.07 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 48c | 93.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 420 | 46.4%195 W · 225 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…cfdebacked No | 49c | 91.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.79 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed Yes | 21c | 85.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…5694backed No | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked No | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 46c | 55.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 57c | 54.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.64 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 73c | 47.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.91 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5f…7e6fbacked No | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…829fbacked Yes | 36c | 39.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -6.3wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…daa0backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ebf…2da0backed No | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d5…ab3ebacked No | 49c | 22.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 56c | 21.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5569…c927backed Yes | 50c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-05-08?this page
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will 1. FC Kaiserslautern win on 2026-05-08?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.