Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8be3a80124df2932327ac2b2190973875aebe20b5e66f2bd9c05f0df98a8c6eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,465
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,465 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 40c | 1,295$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.69 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 62c | 849.58$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.94 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 11c | 793.89$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.56 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 64c | 500.2$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.97 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 19c | 364.33$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 43c | 330$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.46 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 6c | 316.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 41c | 315$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.94 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 54c | 258.56$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.79 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -12.2wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 250.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 238.5$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 212.96$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 40c | 199.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 24c | 173.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 29c | 125.42$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 123.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 29c | 116.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 38c | 113.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 106$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 60c | 99.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.6 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 44c | 99.37$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 72c | 88.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 39c | 76.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes | 31c | 72.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 42c | 70.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.08 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 45c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 62c | 68.36$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 55c | 67.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 65.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 37c | 63.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 58.48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.18 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 39c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 50.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 40c | 50.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 43c | 49.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 41c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 40c | 49.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked No | 60c | 49.58$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 34c | 44.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e6e…cfe9backed No | 58c | 41.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.58 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 34c | 41.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 41c | 40.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…932fbacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34af…b672backed Yes | 61c | 32.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.25per pick | 41cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…d084backed Yes | 41c | 31.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 50c | 27.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 77c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 39c | 25.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…9847backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 58c | 23.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 58c | 21.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 61c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…2d9dbacked No | 59c | 17.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.