Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c957a5c15f6fa1a91d920d4721fc3a4f57e5b5ea18a5befc737f0e37ef75e6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,119 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 22c | 1,190$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.96 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 10c | 871.64$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.87 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 30c | 854.47$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.9 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 818.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 9c | 428.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 395.93$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.26 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 370.58$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…c2dfbacked Yes | 62c | 360.86$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.86 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 15c | 330$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.92 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 33c | 322.41$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.89 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 315$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 309.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.38 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 282.86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed No | 15c | 232.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 62c | 226$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 49c | 207.6$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.54 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 52c | 205.48$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf93d…f36dbacked Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 23c | 198.76$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.56 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 196.01$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.03 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 50c | 178.93$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 23c | 171.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.76 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbc…0083backed Yes | 10c | 157.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x542f…916abacked Yes | 66c | 150.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 13c | 130.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.84 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 28c | 127.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.65 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 79c | 126.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 18c | 126.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…572dbacked Yes | 30c | 125.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 12c | 120$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822b…fef0backed Yes | 22c | 115.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +131.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 58c | 110.7$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.01 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 109.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.3 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 80c | 96.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.02 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.9 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 21c | 87.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.96 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 17c | 85.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.92 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 13c | 84.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.44 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 14c | 79.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.79 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 27c | 74.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 18c | 68.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 22c | 67.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 20c | 66.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 34c | 58.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.29 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed Yes | 36c | 55.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 76c | 47.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.35 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 34c | 47.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 59c | 45.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 69c | 43.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 42$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 40.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…8bebbacked No | 47c | 38.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +21.9wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 37.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6423…2019backed Yes | 65c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 60c | 29.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 80c | 28.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…ef1cbacked No | 46c | 23.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 218 | 48.6%106 W · 112 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed Yes | 66c | 23.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed No | 71c | 18.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 71c | 15.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C or below on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 13°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.