Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c0bb32a979ae262c78697c462f9356558830ee2d3f040d29599a63c40025534
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,622
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,105
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,622 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 28c | 490.77$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.22 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 72c | 277.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.92 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 15c | 188.38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 28c | 184.76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 30c | 174.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5daf…7d98backed Yes | 73c | 172.59$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 70c | 150.07$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.07 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe795…99c9backed No | 29c | 140.75$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.42 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 12c | 137.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.76 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 73c | 136.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 26c | 128.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 70c | 127.1$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 24c | 103$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 12c | 100.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 11c | 93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90e6…319dbacked No | 33c | 91.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 34cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 31c | 80.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 71c | 79.83$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.89 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 29c | 73.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 72c | 62.61$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 29c | 56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 71c | 55.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 69c | 51.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 34c | 51.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 30c | 48.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 71c | 39.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…e0f8backed Yes | 71c | 38.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 30c | 37.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 31c | 36.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…541dbacked Yes | 65c | 32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…8690backed Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…2162backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 61c | 23.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb8…2a2abacked Yes | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 71c | 20.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 68c | 19.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f1…eed4backed Yes | 74c | 18.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531d…f04fbacked Yes | 79c | 18.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 69c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 70c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 68c | 17.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 73c | 17.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa95c…171dbacked Yes | 67c | 14.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.