CS2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1a07d51f0f4b6d25d04248ab1a8165b1e70d5e40a236b498e9adc10ccc6877
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Under | 1c | 3,677$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x154d…a748backed Under | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…2408backed Under | 1c | 1,500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 31c | 999.04$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.69 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Over | 62c | 511.75$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 1,969 | 46.7%919 W · 1,050 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Over | 59c | 424.35$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.06 | 2,214 | 47.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Over | 72c | 319.5$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +88.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Under | 8c | 248.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2908…789abacked Over | 58c | 244.09$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.1 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.16per pick | 64cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Under | 5c | 201.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf48e…1e01backed Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.99 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Under | 50c | 159.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.89 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Over | 65c | 156.51$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.78 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…604ebacked Over | 35c | 156.13$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.99 | 821 | 46.3%380 W · 441 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf54c…e6ccbacked Under | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Over | 62c | 123.88$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.6 | 4,228 | 49.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L | +59.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…9ec4backed Over | 49c | 102.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1669…1363backed Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5541…f1e3backed Over | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 191 | 50.8%97 W · 94 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 38c | 68.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked Over | 38c | 62$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.44 | 251 | 43.8%110 W · 141 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…67cbbacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbe7…90dcbacked Over | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3abc…1a6ebacked Over | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 36c | 32.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 37cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d61…eb8ebacked Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 812 | 46.2%375 W · 437 L | -35.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Under | 67c | 24.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 451 | 62.3%281 W · 170 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 51c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group StageNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 WinnerAurora Gaming won
- Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5)Aurora Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.