Mls · resolved market
Will New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c201e3c0c61bb1f4b3c0b56783c98d607bbd4fbc24539ed953f7a6c8344c6c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,640
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,640 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked No | 72c | 8,789$6,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,461.05 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Yes | 28c | 3,571$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.88 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 28c | 2,341$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.1 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 28c | 1,496$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Yes | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f28…ff9abacked No | 72c | 587.56$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.56 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9605…a2c4backed Yes | 34c | 521.24$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 74c | 429.11$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.09 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 72c | 399.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.09 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 28c | 359.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 71c | 270.52$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.45 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 28c | 269.71$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.96 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 224.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcaf…c830backed No | 73c | 223$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 199 | 60.8%121 W · 78 L | +22.5wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed No | 72c | 223$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.07 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 72c | 187.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked Yes | 23c | 165.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.88 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +12.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 20c | 145$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed No | 72c | 119.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 34c | 102$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 123 | 43.9%54 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 100.5$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 28c | 95.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2003…af6fbacked Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 24c | 65.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed Yes | 26c | 38.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 77 | 26%20 W · 57 L | -8.9wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c7a…bdb5backed No | 72c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 66c | 15.6$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New England Revolution vs. Nashville SC end in a draw?this page
- Will Nashville SC win on 2026-05-13?Yes won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-05-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.