CS2 · resolved market
Thunderpick WC: TNL vs. Imperial
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c4e204ef0bf227e5efc1d530a8a6257f5cc010fbc940bd2673540c15dea1569
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Imperialof TNL, Imperial
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,307
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x988d…9899backed TNL | 52c | 1,726$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.33 | 263 | 44.5%117 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Imperial | 52c | 1,684$884 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.5 | 208 | 55.3%115 W · 93 L | +18.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed TNL | 53c | 1,071$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…4478backed Imperial | 48c | 1,060$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.33 | 282 | 48.9%138 W · 144 L | +21.4wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a3…b1dfbacked Imperial | 70c | 910$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed TNL | 30c | 800$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 163 | 35%57 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked TNL | 52c | 800$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Imperial | 48c | 777.87$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.27 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…7465backed Imperial | 48c | 665.38$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…3486backed TNL | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4602…3315backed Imperial | 46c | 600$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324 | 139 | 54.7%76 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa52c…ef80backed TNL | 32c | 571$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.29 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed TNL | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Imperial | 49c | 409.59$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.89 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +44%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed TNL | 47c | 299.99$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 283 | 51.9%147 W · 136 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf092…4ebabacked TNL | 48c | 278.63$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9823…02dbbacked Imperial | 68c | 270$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.31 | 470 | 55.7%262 W · 208 L | +27.7wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Imperial | 80c | 210$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 141 | 48.9%69 W · 72 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Imperial | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.26 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d7…b646backed Imperial | 53c | 101.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.55 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked TNL | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6dd…98eebacked Imperial | 49c | 61$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.11 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 46cpaid | +128.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed TNL | 27c | 51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Imperial | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddd…6144backed Imperial | 54c | 25.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.