College Football · resolved market
Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c54fbbd185023bcd843d7d80aab454766eb251bc419d8d6bf41b3d6b7d12415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonville Stateof Jacksonville State, Troy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $93,368
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $93,368 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Troy | 55c | 86,842$47,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47,343.83 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Jacksonville State | 45c | 48,011$21,717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,294.59 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Jacksonville State | 46c | 27,588$12,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,897.52 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jacksonville State | 46c | 10,969$5,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,924.91 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Troy | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Jacksonville State | 47c | 6,000$2,820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,180 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe44a…c4f8backed Jacksonville State | 48c | 264.4$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +110.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x623c…dde0backed Jacksonville State | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Troy | 33c | 149.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd397…5052backed Jacksonville State | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb75…ad3cbacked Troy | 55c | 145.45$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Jacksonville State | 46c | 69.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.44 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Jacksonville State | 46c | 57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jacksonville State | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 384 | 50.5%194 W · 190 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)this page
- O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville StateJacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: 1H MoneylineTroy won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 48.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.