College Football · resolved market
Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa98fb76a15f97f7d57adf8bcd9431785828e2c87a7e01aec639d4882dddb0390
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Under | 44c | 181$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Under | 45c | 109$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Under | 44c | 96$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Under | 44c | 94$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Under | 44c | 90$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under | 45c | 62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Under | 45c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…2cb0backed Over | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36c9…3f9fbacked Over | 56c | 49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Over | 56c | 45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 45c | 38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bf…0297backed Over | 55c | 37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed Over | 55c | 36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa48…9062backed Over | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc9…801ebacked Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c1…090dbacked Over | 56c | 27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…d253backed Over | 55c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 50cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e26…c672backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62f0…afe6backed Over | 56c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…0c24backed Over | 55c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Over | 56c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x080f…c226backed Over | 55c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Over | 56c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5this page
- O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville StateJacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: 1H MoneylineTroy won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 48.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.