College Football · resolved market
Spread: Troy (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfa060ae27ca41e2e0b393bd2285ecb08129c16dd3e072cf1d0cb26f52efef16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jacksonville Stateof Troy, Jacksonville State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,104
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,104 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 1,505$782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.39 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Troy | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528 | 659 | 45.2%298 W · 361 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f92…1862backed Troy | 46c | 969.36$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Troy | 48c | 750$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 485 | 46.8%227 W · 258 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Troy | 42c | 586.5$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.76 | 284 | 40.8%116 W · 168 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Jacksonville State | 57c | 351.35$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.35 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Jacksonville State | 57c | 283.78$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Jacksonville State | 61c | 274.88$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.35 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Jacksonville State | 55c | 250$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 183$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fed…0d78backed Jacksonville State | 53c | 179$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked Jacksonville State | 53c | 156$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.32 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Jacksonville State | 53c | 154$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4970…21f6backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 137$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.76 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…b0c0backed Jacksonville State | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Troy | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Jacksonville State | 58c | 108$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 269 | 40.5%109 W · 160 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 103$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.44 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Troy | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -7.7wins | -0.28per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed Jacksonville State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Jacksonville State | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66f7…2894backed Troy | 44c | 77$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf6…9bd5backed Troy | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 48cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa4…b6a4backed Troy | 45c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6132…7665backed Jacksonville State | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.41per pick | 49cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed Jacksonville State | 54c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…ab38backed Troy | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a9…f72ebacked Troy | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd26c…fc57backed Troy | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfa9…7097backed Troy | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a7…e161backed Troy | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Troy | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xab2e…8b4bbacked Troy | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…924fbacked Jacksonville State | 54c | 49$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacd8…b9f6backed Jacksonville State | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ec…c4e5backed Jacksonville State | 54c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…8c58backed Troy | 47c | 43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2c…38ccbacked Troy | 48c | 43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…b2c0backed Troy | 48c | 42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2342…d7cebacked Troy | 47c | 37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3add…e482backed Troy | 48c | 37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…0c60backed Troy | 48c | 36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc5…7ac4backed Jacksonville State | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4918…3db7backed Troy | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.36per pick | 53cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…e730backed Troy | 48c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Jacksonville State | 54c | 33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2949…76bcbacked Troy | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e8…4facbacked Troy | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…1ccebacked Troy | 48c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Jacksonville State | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Troy | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Troy | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60ee…f2d4backed Troy | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88d0…524cbacked Troy | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25c3…eb62backed Troy | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ee…012fbacked Troy | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…5ab9backed Jacksonville State | 54c | 29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1a…60e5backed Troy | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…042fbacked Troy | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Troy | 44c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Troy | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed Troy | 47c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa029…c912backed Troy | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Troy | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Troy | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e02…c5f2backed Troy | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4292…938dbacked Troy | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed Troy | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -54%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb717…a67fbacked Troy | 48c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x597f…e9cfbacked Troy | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b5…694ebacked Troy | 47c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Troy (-2.5)this page
- O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville StateJacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: 1H MoneylineTroy won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 48.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.