College Football · resolved market
Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b546b2fae2d22f2feb8abe6bfecbbf0e35829af23c2735bab54befe873e87d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $931
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed Under | 47c | 153$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Under | 51c | 108$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1488…0672backed Under | 47c | 106$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.18 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa49…949ebacked Under | 47c | 97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.41 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Under | 47c | 85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…a35bbacked Under | 50c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Under | 48c | 59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 53c | 49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8358…956bbacked Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…ae5fbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 48c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…8f17backed Over | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.33per pick | 48cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7500…ae85backed Over | 49c | 36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…ddaebacked Over | 53c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…d47ebacked Over | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…89bcbacked Over | 52c | 33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -3.6wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…bd74backed Over | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…e4e5backed Over | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f53…1ddcbacked Over | 53c | 27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb5…6a69backed Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9431…6270backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68e0…a3a6backed Under | 48c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Over | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…0100backed Over | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d19…8b58backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa46…1559backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fba…dc55backed Over | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 48.5this page
- O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Jacksonville State (-3.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-1.5)Jacksonville State won
- Spread: Troy (-2.5)Jacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville StateJacksonville State won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: 1H MoneylineTroy won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 47.5Under won
- Troy vs. Jacksonville State: O/U 49.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.