Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan win on 2025-11-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c5e32128a97bde70fd921ac86fef05b19e4a383683ce25b89cb258368d1ca24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 12c | 9,053$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.12 | 465 | 36.1%168 W · 297 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 11c | 6,243$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.89 | 760 | 48.7%370 W · 390 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed No | 14c | 5,100$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.95 | 605 | 11.4%69 W · 536 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…c186backed No | 12c | 3,580$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.62 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 13c | 3,545$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.44 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 12c | 2,437$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.24 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 13c | 1,701$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.3 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 11c | 1,605$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.23 | 359 | 42.9%154 W · 205 L | -16.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 12c | 1,500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.99 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 13c | 1,443$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.07 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 12c | 1,052$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.82 | 423 | 52%220 W · 203 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked No | 15c | 999.97$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 5c | 900$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,252 | 39.2%491 W · 761 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed No | 10c | 794.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.23 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked No | 8c | 676$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.08 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 10c | 664.67$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 346 | 30.1%104 W · 242 L | -21.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…cfadbacked No | 10c | 474.06$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed No | 12c | 472.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x040f…e98cbacked No | 12c | 472.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 12c | 400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 287 | 54.7%157 W · 130 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed No | 14c | 399.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9014…db4abacked No | 11c | 317.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 13c | 298.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.39 | 216 | 30.1%65 W · 151 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f9…e894backed No | 12c | 287.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked No | 11c | 278$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 168 | 31.5%53 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 11c | 278$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 397 | 49.9%198 W · 199 L | -16.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 11c | 277.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 464 | 53.2%247 W · 217 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed No | 10c | 261.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 5c | 249.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed No | 12c | 245$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 11c | 208$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 202 | 45.5%92 W · 110 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…3a09backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74d7…6beabacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 15c | 196.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 184 | 52.7%97 W · 87 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 11c | 172.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.56 | 168 | 41.1%69 W · 99 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd079…8db3backed No | 11c | 166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed No | 11c | 166$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked No | 11c | 163$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked No | 13c | 158.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed No | 14c | 156$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 431 | 45.2%195 W · 236 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…8163backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 33cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 19c | 150$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…9a84backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 78 | 48.7%38 W · 40 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed No | 11c | 138$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked No | 13c | 127.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 17c | 115.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 226 | 50.9%115 W · 111 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked No | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 81 | 63%51 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 12c | 88.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbff4…9429backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan win on 2025-11-18?this page
- Will Bolivia win on 2025-11-18?No won
- Will Japan vs. Bolivia end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.