Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c61e86455b579d8766e819db4fd0b5a4d5d1fb5f81927b95d40968c6bb6c5f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,331
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 48c | 1,724$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828.41 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf201…527ebacked Under | 51c | 804.87$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.48 | 1,300 | 45.2%587 W · 713 L | +50.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9560…9467backed Under | 49c | 658$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.42 | 204 | 54.9%112 W · 92 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Over | 52c | 576.92$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.92 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Under | 51c | 509.18$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.53 | 288 | 43.8%126 W · 162 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa070…1af3backed Over | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Under | 49c | 497.49$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.32 | 126 | 39.7%50 W · 76 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d24…9c89backed Over | 51c | 405$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.45 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Over | 51c | 395.99$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.03 | 186 | 53.2%99 W · 87 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Under | 49c | 279.8$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.1 | 188 | 29.8%56 W · 132 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8f…5259backed Over | 51c | 223.53$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.53 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 417 | 49.2%205 W · 212 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb996…038cbacked Over | 51c | 179$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.71 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec38…ca10backed Over | 51c | 114$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Over | 49c | 107$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…457fbacked Over | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 101 | 65.3%66 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed Over | 52c | 92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 103 | 55.3%57 W · 46 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c7…264fbacked Under | 55c | 72.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 280 | 40%112 W · 168 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Over | 51c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.3 | 383 | 58%222 W · 161 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c5…b613backed Over | 52c | 57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.36 | 145 | 61.4%89 W · 56 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…3d55backed Over | 52c | 51.37$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed Over | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 316 | 50.3%159 W · 157 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe16…5fa2backed Over | 51c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 43c | 45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 275 | 48.7%134 W · 141 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…a9cebacked Over | 51c | 40.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 53 | 66%35 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Under | 53c | 38.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 259 | 60.2%156 W · 103 L | +21.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0d83…8eb4backed Over | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb49…21b1backed Over | 52c | 38.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Over | 50c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…68e6backed Over | 51c | 33.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Under | 52c | 30.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 1,244 | 39.7%494 W · 750 L | -69.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94e0…351abacked Under | 49c | 28.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e58…fb5abacked Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 50c | 26.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 153 | 56.9%87 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…544bbacked Over | 51c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5389…1e77backed Over | 49c | 24.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.64 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa60d…03a8backed Over | 49c | 22.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c67…e838backed Under | 49c | 20.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Under | 52c | 20.19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Under | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 285 | 59.6%170 W · 115 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef9…7a60backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 144 | 37.5%54 W · 90 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Game Handicap: GX (-1.5) vs Fnatic (+1.5)Fnatic won
- LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group StageGIANTX won
- LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 1 WinnerGIANTX won
- LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic - Game 2 WinnerFnatic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.