Europa Conference League · resolved market
UEFA Europa League: Athletic Club vs. Manchester United (To Advance)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c732fefc3c19c045b2fb22a09fcdab85aa7fa9e4b9fca3dfb43a0e8d7be4cc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester Unitedof Athletic Club, Manchester United
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,761
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,501
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,761 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3309…af98backed Manchester United | 51c | 38,556$19,664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,892.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e2…13e9backed Athletic Club | 49c | 38,556$18,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,892.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Athletic Club | 5c | 2,129$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.65 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Athletic Club | 2c | 2,046$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 62 | 9.7%6 W · 56 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a75ebacked Athletic Club | 5c | 1,968$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 29cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…95b0backed Athletic Club | 6c | 1,719$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65a7…303dbacked Athletic Club | 6c | 1,214$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Athletic Club | 49c | 863.97$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.34 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed Athletic Club | 51c | 778$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ef…d800backed Athletic Club | 4c | 708.68$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15a0…c396backed Athletic Club | 4c | 641.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe932…0f05backed Athletic Club | 7c | 600$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6926…bfa8backed Athletic Club | 4c | 551.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8c…465bbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 420.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73de…c416backed Athletic Club | 6c | 385$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd1f…2130backed Athletic Club | 4c | 367.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd854…22bfbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 358.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4b1…0c12backed Athletic Club | 4c | 351.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…6b6bbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 343.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…0041backed Athletic Club | 4c | 339.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…101abacked Athletic Club | 4c | 313.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…4666backed Athletic Club | 4c | 312.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ae…78b3backed Athletic Club | 4c | 308.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…875dbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 291.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d78…413cbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 289.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb702…790fbacked Athletic Club | 4c | 283.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ccf…6825backed Athletic Club | 4c | 281.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7380…6929backed Athletic Club | 4c | 276.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad3…915abacked Athletic Club | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Athletic Club | 16c | 191.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed Athletic Club | 50c | 72.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Athletic Club | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Manchester United | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 42cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…3a00backed Athletic Club | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd90a…4dbabacked Manchester United | 53c | 44.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39a9…64cbbacked Athletic Club | 54c | 37.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7849…b531backed Manchester United | 51c | 36.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf937…6b43backed Athletic Club | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ba…b52dbacked Manchester United | 51c | 33.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81ef…c7e1backed Athletic Club | 50c | 23.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c53…3129backed Athletic Club | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Manchester United | 51c | 21.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…b20dbacked Manchester United | 67c | 21.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50db…4defbacked Manchester United | 51c | 20.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.