Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c7f65eb196f426bace07321a57cbbffa4e15f72536b65664c08a0a8edd10ed9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,876
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 40c | 388.64$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.88 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 62c | 297.98$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 31c | 261.16$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…d8a9backed No | 77c | 230.86$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.86 | 79 | 79.7%63 W · 16 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 21c | 161.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 152.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 152.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.72 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 41c | 122.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.76 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 34c | 105.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 52c | 97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 24c | 96.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.14 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x874b…4af0backed Yes | 57c | 93.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 92 | 38%35 W · 57 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 53c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 29c | 87.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 84.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.09 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 30c | 77.43$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 67c | 75.44$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 60.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 60$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 25c | 58.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.24 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked No | 67c | 57.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd514…bbdfbacked No | 61c | 56.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 579 | 48.4%280 W · 299 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 24c | 56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed Yes | 57c | 53.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 28c | 51.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 46.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…08dfbacked No | 39c | 44.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked No | 60c | 41.49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 34c | 38.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 60c | 36.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 68c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 53c | 32.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 33c | 31.03$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.79 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed No | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 37c | 30.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 40c | 28.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf740…d999backed Yes | 73c | 28.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 79c | 28.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 46c | 26.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 67c | 26.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.44 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 52c | 25.69$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1632…ad5abacked No | 59c | 25.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 502 | 61%306 W · 196 L | -17.9wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad6e…9244backed No | 59c | 23.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7747…fe40backed No | 56c | 22.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…c1e1backed No | 65c | 21.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.32per pick | 62cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 69c | 20.58$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…af97backed Yes | 71c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 16.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa922…9a52backed Yes | 63c | 15.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | -5.5wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.