Fifa International · resolved market
Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca1944bb82dca481489e2a8936c3e389a347461d9211ddab03d9280880e7597
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $155,597
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6937…085dbacked No | 31c | 10,010$3,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,102 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38c2…d3a7backed Yes | 72c | 9,047$6,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,556.95 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 18c | 7,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,349.97 | 178 | 42.7%76 W · 102 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…4af9backed No | 19c | 5,248$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.4 | 125 | 25.6%32 W · 93 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8191…8a35backed Yes | 70c | 3,594$2,530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.21 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed No | 15c | 3,491$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.68 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 18c | 3,370$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.12 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 27c | 3,321$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$889.92 | 246 | 47.6%117 W · 129 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…153ebacked No | 29c | 3,225$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 75c | 2,853$2,128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$725.09 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked No | 19c | 2,648$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.82 | 89 | 60.7%54 W · 35 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed No | 18c | 2,617$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 18c | 1,917$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.22 | 292 | 32.9%96 W · 196 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e84…2b5dbacked No | 19c | 1,653$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 1,412$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.69 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7020…fd20backed Yes | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 45 | 60%27 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ea…a857backed No | 15c | 1,212$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.8 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…49efbacked No | 19c | 1,196$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.29 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 29c | 682.38$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.67 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 114 | 44.7%51 W · 63 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 25c | 588.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Yes | 70c | 476.85$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.06 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 17c | 298.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1d…6a8bbacked Yes | 72c | 253.74$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked No | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 105 | 35.2%37 W · 68 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…745cbacked Yes | 80c | 200.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef4…4e4ebacked No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10f1…958ebacked Yes | 73c | 186.3$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…917bbacked Yes | 74c | 180.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…a60abacked Yes | 74c | 163.01$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 71c | 158.84$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 229 | 59.4%136 W · 93 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Yes | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked No | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 396 | 21%83 W · 313 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 27c | 139.63$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cc…8026backed Yes | 71c | 126.76$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.13per pick | 55cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…fadbbacked No | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e35…6c7fbacked No | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +238.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 19c | 103$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa19…fb67backed No | 16c | 84.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be6…0517backed Yes | 71c | 76.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056e…c0f4backed Yes | 71c | 70.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed No | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…ead9backed Yes | 71c | 50.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c69…66afbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x735a…3ef2backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf430…675abacked Yes | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746f…8dc7backed Yes | 78c | 37.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 27 | 81.5%22 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 61cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…353dbacked Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 85 | 54.1%46 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed Yes | 69c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Serbia win on 2025-10-14?this page
- Will Andorra vs. Serbia end in a draw?No won
- Will Andorra win on 2025-10-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.