Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cb9cf77f54ff336fa439ddeed0718153cabb8d1b5bce133dc3f393fc2ea88c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win | 17c | 3,485$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.99 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 11c | 2,515$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.81 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 12c | 1,955$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.23 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 79c | 615.56$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.27 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 76c | 518.4$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.15 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed 1win | 24c | 499.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e43…f53cbacked Aurora | 73c | 496.82$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 21c | 491.76$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676f…43c1backed 1win | 26c | 488.32$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.08 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed 1win | 21c | 470.95$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.59 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 78c | 447.09$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1854…be98backed Aurora | 73c | 416.15$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b51…2b54backed 1win | 26c | 409.96$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.7 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed 1win | 18c | 374$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed 1win | 18c | 374$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 17c | 373.78$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.53 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed 1win | 13c | 284.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed 1win | 12c | 259.1$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed 1win | 20c | 252.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6826…d188backed 1win | 16c | 172.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked 1win | 25c | 105.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 15c | 98.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked 1win | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 22c | 59.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed 1win | 21c | 49.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90cb…4622backed Aurora | 77c | 34.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd12…9debbacked Aurora | 79c | 30.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2d…d7f8backed Aurora | 77c | 23.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner1win won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.