TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
1winof Aurora, 1win
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$89,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,913

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,366 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5d58…9a15backed 1win26c17,453$4,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,933.514840.5%60 W · 88 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Aurora74c17,037$12,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,607.55549.1%27 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed 1win40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0009657.3%55 W · 41 L+8.5wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked 1win31c4,013$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,787.322,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora60c2,761$1,647 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,646.8751751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win31c2,529$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,753.4667043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Aurora50c2,232$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.3847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora54c1,598$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.91,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora67c1,468$982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.4856852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e67…e2e6backed Aurora58c1,398$818 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$817.674351.2%22 W · 21 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick58cpaid-13.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed 1win55c1,350$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.2619664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora15c1,269$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.7929352.9%155 W · 138 L+8.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab90…a576backed Aurora29c1,100$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.546352.4%33 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed 1win52c1,045$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.432,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora48c1,001$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.4889749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Aurora69c993.09$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.1820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora60c976$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.61,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Aurora59c814.55$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$478.271,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora58c772.8$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.281,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked 1win32c739.59$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.1460646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked 1win74c734.29$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.6492056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3dd1…2812backed Aurora52c637.37$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.0511836.4%43 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5565…e5d6backed Aurora66c619.51$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.883764.9%24 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked 1win35c619.01$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.5537047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9da0…523cbacked 1win50c594.28$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.96785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+47.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ea3…71a1backed 1win56c562.07$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.71250%6 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked 1win53c551.94$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.4336547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked 1win46c531.29$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.331,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed 1win48c484.28$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7617454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked 1win66c446.97$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.136250%31 W · 31 L-5.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3f7…8917backed 1win26c437.8$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.973053.3%16 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16d8…ba9ebacked 1win36c403.61$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.398750.6%44 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked 1win42c389.18$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.97243.1%31 W · 41 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb94f…07a6backed Aurora40c369.69$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.342536%9 W · 16 L-3.9wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf924…6eb3backed 1win42c345.09$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+138.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Aurora49c325.54$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3968649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed 1win34c309.75$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.4311043.6%48 W · 62 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora64c305.54$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.0921650.9%110 W · 106 L-25.3wins-0.12per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed 1win20c299$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.5788539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora57c298.56$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.2552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed 1win21c260.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.5711131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde1f…d634backed 1win36c259.85$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.32725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-20.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed 1win22c247.12$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.0938855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora53c241.25$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.41,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed 1win60c236.21$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5765625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked 1win33c229.08$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.171,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora66c222.64$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.9424955.4%138 W · 111 L-6.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed 1win41c210.61$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.121,26049.7%626 W · 634 L+21.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab04…a00abacked Aurora50c202$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137945.9%174 W · 205 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora76c200$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15226661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora54c199.35$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.5979343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x736d…c635backed 1win57c194.83$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9797142.7%415 W · 556 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Aurora72c136.23$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.3338653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ed…a4cbbacked Aurora56c124.28$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.116841.2%28 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Aurora52c123$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.964535.6%16 W · 29 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Aurora75c121.48$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.11366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick70cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Aurora75c121.48$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cd…3ca2backed 1win20c110$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886532.3%21 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win79c102$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.422,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3072637.5%272 W · 454 L+3.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0afb…19acbacked Aurora75c98.57$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3c8…e340backed Aurora30c98$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.424527.3%67 W · 178 L-12.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Aurora65c97.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6446664.2%299 W · 167 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd439…21d3backed Aurora51c95.61$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5231644.9%142 W · 174 L-18.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed 1win55c93.75$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.051,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c8…a184backed 1win48c92$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4836044.2%159 W · 201 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora50c80.8$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6265337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora22c78.97$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4695841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa900…5acebacked Aurora69c66$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.545048%24 W · 26 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid-8.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0947…bea7backed Aurora57c65.61$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+51.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked 1win38c61.55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.0417853.4%95 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.858152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x796d…9551backed 1win46c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.42152.4%11 W · 10 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Aurora78c59.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5360%0 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x127e…cca1backed Aurora54c53.96$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2446150.8%234 W · 227 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora30c52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.669033.3%230 W · 460 L-27.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-32.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1357654.5%314 W · 262 L+29.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x00f7…4476backed 1win21c49.99$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.494738.3%18 W · 29 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa74a…4893backed 1win47c47.95$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3236138.2%138 W · 223 L-20.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-32.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2f4b…69debacked 1win41c47.05$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7637456.4%211 W · 163 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa97…69fabacked Aurora63c46.89$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.331127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-59.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked 1win43c45.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.997741.6%32 W · 45 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66ed…d321backed 1win33c43.63$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.2334045.9%156 W · 184 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Aurora70c42.96$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0792561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed 1win58c40.34$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.9429656.1%166 W · 130 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x06d9…7cfbbacked 1win61c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.620151.2%103 W · 98 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…3411backed Aurora77c38.42$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.597068.6%48 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99cd…26f0backed Aurora64c34.38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.833852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e6d…2671backed Aurora64c33.66$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5839559%233 W · 162 L+18.3wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8027…cf81backed Aurora62c31.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5513152.7%69 W · 62 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Aurora80c30.88$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Aurora56c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8820954.5%114 W · 95 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Aurora50c28.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.458852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d5…8a03backed 1win38c28.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.545347.2%25 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcfaf…064abacked Aurora74c27.02$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8058…4cc3backed Aurora65c22.59$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6917861.2%109 W · 69 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4c3…78ffbacked Aurora74c21.76$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc539…5ec2backed Aurora65c16.57$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.774042.5%17 W · 23 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid+3.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6855…ba24backed Aurora75c14.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.841258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.