Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a5b8371b630d7de3e93f1e5f582cf5d2694c819f6066f1eceeae20e3fcdf95f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1winof Aurora, 1win
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $89,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,913
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed 1win | 26c | 17,453$4,519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,933.5 | 148 | 40.5%60 W · 88 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2c…9bc1backed Aurora | 74c | 17,037$12,608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,607.5 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…8967backed 1win | 40c | 5,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,000 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +8.5wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked 1win | 31c | 4,013$1,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,787.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Aurora | 60c | 2,761$1,647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,646.87 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked 1win | 31c | 2,529$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.46 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Aurora | 50c | 2,232$1,111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,111.38 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Aurora | 54c | 1,598$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.9 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed Aurora | 67c | 1,468$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.48 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e67…e2e6backed Aurora | 58c | 1,398$818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.67 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed 1win | 55c | 1,350$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.26 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed Aurora | 15c | 1,269$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.79 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab90…a576backed Aurora | 29c | 1,100$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.54 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed 1win | 52c | 1,045$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.43 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Aurora | 48c | 1,001$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$476.48 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Aurora | 69c | 993.09$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.18 | 201 | 56.7%114 W · 87 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Aurora | 60c | 976$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.6 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Aurora | 59c | 814.55$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.27 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Aurora | 58c | 772.8$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.28 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked 1win | 32c | 739.59$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.14 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked 1win | 74c | 734.29$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.64 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Aurora | 52c | 637.37$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.05 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…e5d6backed Aurora | 66c | 619.51$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.88 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked 1win | 35c | 619.01$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.55 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked 1win | 50c | 594.28$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.96 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 62cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed 1win | 56c | 562.07$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.7 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69bf…0c5dbacked 1win | 53c | 551.94$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.43 | 365 | 47.7%174 W · 191 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked 1win | 46c | 531.29$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.33 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed 1win | 48c | 484.28$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.76 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked 1win | 66c | 446.97$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.13 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f7…8917backed 1win | 26c | 437.8$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.97 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16d8…ba9ebacked 1win | 36c | 403.61$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.39 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked 1win | 42c | 389.18$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.9 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb94f…07a6backed Aurora | 40c | 369.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.34 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…6eb3backed 1win | 42c | 345.09$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Aurora | 49c | 325.54$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed 1win | 34c | 309.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.43 | 110 | 43.6%48 W · 62 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 64c | 305.54$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.09 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x80ba…2e78backed 1win | 20c | 299$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.57 | 885 | 39.7%351 W · 534 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Aurora | 57c | 298.56$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed 1win | 21c | 260.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.57 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde1f…d634backed 1win | 36c | 259.85$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.3 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…c8f9backed 1win | 22c | 247.12$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.09 | 388 | 55.2%214 W · 174 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 53c | 241.25$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.4 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed 1win | 60c | 236.21$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.57 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked 1win | 33c | 229.08$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.17 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Aurora | 66c | 222.64$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.94 | 249 | 55.4%138 W · 111 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed 1win | 41c | 210.61$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.12 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Aurora | 50c | 202$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 54c | 199.35$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.59 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed 1win | 57c | 194.83$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.97 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Aurora | 72c | 136.23$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Aurora | 56c | 124.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Aurora | 52c | 123$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…4f4cbacked Aurora | 75c | 121.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Aurora | 75c | 121.48$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cd…3ca2backed 1win | 20c | 110$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked 1win | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Aurora | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0afb…19acbacked Aurora | 75c | 98.57$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…e340backed Aurora | 30c | 98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 245 | 27.3%67 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Aurora | 65c | 97.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd439…21d3backed Aurora | 51c | 95.61$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 316 | 44.9%142 W · 174 L | -18.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed 1win | 55c | 93.75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.05 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed 1win | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Aurora | 50c | 80.8$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Aurora | 22c | 78.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa900…5acebacked Aurora | 69c | 66$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…bea7backed Aurora | 57c | 65.61$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked 1win | 38c | 61.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac93…0cfcbacked Aurora | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 581 | 52.5%305 W · 276 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x796d…9551backed 1win | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc58a…b8f8backed Aurora | 78c | 59.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Aurora | 54c | 53.96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Aurora | 30c | 52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Aurora | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f7…4476backed 1win | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.49 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed 1win | 47c | 47.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.32 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4b…69debacked 1win | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 374 | 56.4%211 W · 163 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…69fabacked Aurora | 63c | 46.89$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58ea…538dbacked 1win | 43c | 45.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed 1win | 33c | 43.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Aurora | 70c | 42.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed 1win | 58c | 40.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked 1win | 61c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Aurora | 77c | 38.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99cd…26f0backed Aurora | 64c | 34.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Aurora | 64c | 33.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 395 | 59%233 W · 162 L | +18.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Aurora | 62c | 31.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9d…7d9ebacked Aurora | 80c | 30.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Aurora | 56c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Aurora | 50c | 28.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d5…8a03backed 1win | 38c | 28.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfaf…064abacked Aurora | 74c | 27.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Aurora | 65c | 22.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c3…78ffbacked Aurora | 74c | 21.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc539…5ec2backed Aurora | 65c | 16.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6855…ba24backed Aurora | 75c | 14.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 1win - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Game Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 1win (+1.5)1win won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.