South American Leagues · resolved market
São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8cbd277d10e69bd2b912faace190fc1eb0d432c349b4d4eff300c5ad47953c7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,576
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,775
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,576 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 56c | 2,674$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.64 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Under | 52c | 2,020$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.47 | 131 | 34.4%45 W · 86 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8df8…59ddbacked Under | 57c | 1,294$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Over | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Over | 44c | 799.98$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.99 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 44c | 632$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.08 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 54c | 616.6$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.58 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Under | 46c | 372.39$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.64 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 59c | 302.05$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.33 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc55d…9d2dbacked Under | 55c | 253.32$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.32 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…3f2ebacked Over | 62c | 248.39$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…4d13backed Over | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -9.0wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 237.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.69 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06fd…2a05backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 54c | 163.2$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.06 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 45c | 151.35$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.78 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Over | 39c | 147.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -6.9wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 45c | 135.97$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.01 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2353…67bfbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 49c | 112.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 46c | 101.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.68 | 135 | 57%77 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -25%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b53…95c4backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 61c | 89.82$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 44c | 76.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 42cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 74.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f9…f701backed Under | 45c | 66.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2961…cfcfbacked Over | 46c | 63.04$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 35.3%47 W · 86 L | -14.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 48c | 53.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…0a40backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9f…5a30backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b2…5165backed Over | 53c | 49.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Over | 44c | 47.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 34c | 44.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9796…9032backed Over | 46c | 42.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 58c | 42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 54c | 41.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 52c | 39.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Under | 60c | 37.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 49c | 34.85$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 817 | 40.8%333 W · 484 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…fc33backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1859…2aefbacked Over | 47c | 25.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 50c | 24.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.37 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Under | 54c | 20.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 2.5this page
- São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 1.5Over won
- São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 3.5Under won
- São Paulo FC vs. Grêmio FBPA: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.