Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ce79a937280644e77d77851d1fed32a63acb34c092f07e68cd4786180757ce0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x26fc…4c27backed No | 1c | 3,485$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 131 | 0.8%1 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -97.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 792.2$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.8 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 11c | 786.12$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.62 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 5c | 676.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 437.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 14c | 367.94$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.21 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 288.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 10c | 275$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.15 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 7c | 261.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.25 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed Yes | 4c | 251.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.39 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 7c | 217.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 8c | 206.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.71 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 38c | 201.37$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 8c | 180$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 62c | 161.41$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 18c | 159.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 158.37$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 13c | 147$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.02 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 49c | 135.32$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.31 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 52c | 129.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.11 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 8c | 129.56$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.56 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 122$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 120$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.52 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 9c | 116.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.94 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed No | 73c | 106.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 26c | 94.62$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 38c | 84.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 69c | 77.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.11 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 39c | 74.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 22c | 69.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 51c | 28.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 57c | 26.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 79c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.