Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc9dcc63492665818a321cee6217e5e74a90a8e03fe04ed6262fd600036eb3bcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,646
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,212
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,646 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked Yes | 4c | 2,662$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 41c | 1,325$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.8 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed No | 52c | 489.99$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.6 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 69c | 482.58$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.5 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 74c | 466.16$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.83 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 27c | 346.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 55c | 322.03$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 43c | 299.98$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.99 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f02…c78fbacked No | 58c | 289.99$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 6c | 269.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 46c | 245.67$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.01 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 61c | 244.7$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.64 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 41c | 241.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e1…8148backed Yes | 19c | 222.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 16c | 202.38$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 54c | 201.34$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.62 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 43c | 159.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.48 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 153.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…4849backed Yes | 45c | 151.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 28c | 146.49$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…ddb5backed No | 67c | 129.99$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 218 | 65.6%143 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08de…76b9backed No | 59c | 117.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 56c | 117.89$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.1 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 48c | 115.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 43c | 114.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.53 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 106$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e9…0208backed No | 49c | 102.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.25 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 33c | 100.22$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed No | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 56c | 99.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked No | 55c | 96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 67c | 95.48$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.34 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 21c | 88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10a4…2895backed No | 58c | 82.74$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 65c | 82.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 53c | 82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 42c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 53c | 73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 46c | 72.19$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1250…db19backed No | 43c | 69.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.55 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b8…e749backed Yes | 46c | 65.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 56c | 61.08$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.72 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 66c | 58.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb68e…9179backed No | 54c | 55.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.36 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 55.27$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 53.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 72c | 52.49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 50c | 52.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb198…6291backed Yes | 49c | 51.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 133 | 40.6%54 W · 79 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 46c | 51.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…2ee3backed Yes | 43c | 50.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.87 | 76 | 59.2%45 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 52c | 50.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf5b…0393backed Yes | 44c | 49.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 61c | 47.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 42c | 47.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 45.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.15 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x015b…5bfbbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 49.2%63 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e4…3afebacked Yes | 42c | 44.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 35c | 44.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 47c | 41.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0db1…6272backed Yes | 36c | 41.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 48c | 41.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…35c4backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 61.2%109 W · 69 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 49c | 40.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe77d…7383backed Yes | 45c | 39.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 45cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…7b6fbacked Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 39c | 35.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 65c | 35.41$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 58c | 34.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd33…21d1backed Yes | 45c | 33.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 50c | 30.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ba…348cbacked No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 54c | 27.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 56c | 27.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…21f5backed No | 60c | 27.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 27.03$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 52c | 26.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…9d78backed No | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ad…ff75backed Yes | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a9…e2acbacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 50c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed No | 66c | 23.92$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 51c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed No | 76c | 20.62$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 68c | 18.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.