Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02cacf15621b68a6243282194679d39596db665c077c915a5ffb525cc2a895f8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,859
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,525
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,859 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 4c | 2,198$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 855.83$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.45 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 47c | 439.58$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.44 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17f0…20febacked Yes | 5c | 314.31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 151 | 6.6%10 W · 141 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4829…97ebbacked No | 70c | 285.2$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 399 | 51.1%204 W · 195 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 42c | 277.97$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…cc19backed Yes | 47c | 274.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee1…77fcbacked No | 39c | 253.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.73 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +169.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1acf…d02ebacked Yes | 39c | 247.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 62c | 230.11$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 221.42$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 50c | 218.53$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.99 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3910…ba74backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 172 | 31.4%54 W · 118 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f6…15a2backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 7.4%6 W · 75 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 39c | 195$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.1 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 194.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 57c | 194.3$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 39c | 188.79$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 49c | 178.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.91 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c29…f3bbbacked Yes | 48c | 161.7$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.91 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 37c | 161.36$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.44 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 51c | 150.03$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.74 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 128.99$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.7 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 34c | 126.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 120.72$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 118.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 26c | 109.46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 23c | 105.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.14 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 64c | 104.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7d…9e7abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd12…7f29backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 154 | 37.7%58 W · 96 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40b0…f139backed Yes | 62c | 88$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 297 | 40.7%121 W · 176 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 29c | 84.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.02 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 56c | 81$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea1…d176backed No | 58c | 76.1$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked No | 67c | 73.08$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1717…1f7cbacked No | 75c | 70.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1546…778bbacked Yes | 27c | 69.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 354 | 29.9%106 W · 248 L | -17.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e3…5652backed Yes | 46c | 69.4$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked No | 50c | 67.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 50c | 65.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 47c | 63.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe798…5204backed No | 28c | 63.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 53c | 61.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…8daabacked No | 72c | 59.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c2…0c32backed No | 58c | 58.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 37c | 57.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4131…d591backed Yes | 47c | 55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 54c | 53.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 28c | 51.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 42c | 50.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…9bedbacked Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…a34dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 91 | 29.7%27 W · 64 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58a…2a4fbacked Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x375d…62c5backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…d152backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f4…665ebacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 142 | 64.1%91 W · 51 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…aa45backed No | 53c | 49.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.18 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 48c | 46.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…016abacked Yes | 50c | 46.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 166 | 31.9%53 W · 113 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 74c | 45.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 43.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 36c | 43.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8480…8b20backed Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af2…ce86backed No | 61c | 42.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +6.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 52c | 41.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.87 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfed…e080backed No | 71c | 39.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed Yes | 53c | 38.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 47c | 35.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4033…48c5backed No | 49c | 34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 74c | 33.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 63c | 31.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…f7f7backed Yes | 75c | 30.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -7.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 39c | 29.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 58c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 72c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2031…cfd7backed No | 76c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed No | 41c | 25.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc457…1675backed No | 67c | 22.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 77c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe13…a594backed No | 73c | 20.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +91.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x053b…d0fabacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 79c | 18.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47e9…732cbacked No | 73c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 65c | 16.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7164…24fabacked No | 73c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ee…e90bbacked No | 73c | 15.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C or below on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 5?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C or higher on May 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.